What does ICT say about FOMC?
ICT says FOMC is a two-stage delivery and a liquidity event, and not to trade it until 2:45 to 2:50 pm. We measured all three on 61 FOMC days of NQ futures, against normal Wednesdays at the same clock times.
The short answer
ICT has three rules for FOMC days. It is a two-stage delivery: the 2:00 pm statement makes a first run, and the 2:30 pm press conference often reverses it, harder. It is a liquidity event. And it is not traded until 2:45 to 2:50 pm. We measured all three on NQ futures: 61 FOMC days from Nov 2016 to Jun 2024, against 286 normal Wednesdays at the same clock times. Two of the rules describe price well, and the third is sound advice that comes at a cost.
| ICT’s rule | What we found |
|---|---|
| “A Liquidity Event” | Holds up best. 2:00 to 4:00 pm took the day’s high or low on 85% of FOMC days, against 50% of normal Wednesdays. |
| “A 2 stage delivery” | Holds up, measured his way. The 2:30 pm press conference took price back through the 2:00 pm price on 69% of FOMC days, against 33% after a same-size move on a normal Wednesday. |
| “Not traded until 2:45 - 2:50” | Sound, at a cost. Three quarters of the 2:00 to 4:00 pm range is in by 2:50 pm, but the move left after 2:50 pm is still 1.8x a normal Wednesday’s. |
ICT’s three rules
He has posted about FOMC days on X for years. These three posts make claims you can check against the bars, so here they are in his exact words.
Each rule became a measurement, written down before any number was run. “Reversed on harder”, for example, became: after the 2:00 pm move, price comes back through the 2:00 pm price and runs further past it than the 2:00 pm move went.
What we measured
- The market: NQ futures, 1-minute bars of the front-month contract. ES, YM and RTY were run the same way, and they agree.
- The FOMC days: every scheduled meeting with a 2:00 pm statement, Nov 2016 to Jun 2024. That is 61 days, and 52 of them had a 2:30 pm press conference; every meeting since 2019 has had one.
- The comparison: 286 normal Wednesdays in the same years, at the same clock times. Wednesdays three weeks after a meeting are left out, because the minutes come out at 2:00 pm that day.
- Sizes are a share of price, so 2017 and 2024 compare fairly.
- Why it stops in mid 2024: the two years since are held back, untouched, as a test set.
All times are New York time (ET).
“A Liquidity Event”
If FOMC is a liquidity event, price should go and take the levels resting around it. The plainest test: between 2:00 and 4:00 pm, does price take the day’s high or low so far, counted from the 6:00 pm open?
It did on 85% of FOMC days. On normal Wednesdays, 50%.
Taking both sides is rare on a normal day. In those two hours price took both the day’s high and its low on 20% of FOMC days, and on 1 day in 286 normal Wednesdays. Of the three rules, this is the one the data backs most clearly.
“A 2 stage delivery”
ICT’s two stages are the 2:00 pm statement and the 2:30 pm press conference. So stage one is the move away from the 2:00 pm price in the first half hour, and stage two is what price does from 2:30 to 4:00 pm. This uses the 52 FOMC days with a press conference.
Reversed. The press conference took price back through the 2:00 pm price, to the other side, on 69% of FOMC days. After a same-size move at 2:00 pm on a normal Wednesday: 33%.
Reversed harder, in ICT’s words: price ran further past the 2:00 pm price than the first move went on 38% of FOMC days. Same-size normal moves: 7%.
The size match matters. Compared with every normal Wednesday, this rule looked ordinary; how we tested it shows why that comparison misleads.
The 2:30 pm move comes back through the 2:00 pm price.
It runs further past the 2:00 pm price than the 2:00 pm move went.
“Not traded until 2:45 - 2:50”
ICT’s advice is to let the release do its damage, then look for setups. Two numbers frame it.
By 2:50 pm, a median of 75% of the 2:00 to 4:00 pm range has already been made. On a normal Wednesday, 63%.
But plenty is left. Measured from 2:50 pm, the bigger move to 4:00 pm is 1.8x a normal Wednesday’s, about 175 NQ points at September 2026 prices. Waiting skips most of the whipsaw, and still leaves a move bigger than a normal afternoon’s.
“Ignore the AM session”
The 2023 post also says to ignore the morning, and the morning is quiet. Against the four normal Wednesdays before each meeting, NQ’s FOMC mornings (9:30 am to 12:00 pm) moved about 30% less, and less on 41 of 61 days. ES is the same; on YM and RTY the morning is only a little quieter. The range waits for 2:00 pm.
The 90-minute quarters
Quarter Sequence splits the afternoon, 12:00 to 5:00 pm, into four 90-minute quarters: Q1 from 12:00 pm, Q2 from 1:30 pm, Q3 from 3:00 pm and Q4 from 4:30 pm. The statement and the press conference both land in Q2.
On FOMC days the PM session’s high or low printed in Q2 70% of the time. On normal Wednesdays, 32%. Quarterly Theory calls Q2 the manipulation quarter, and on FOMC afternoons it is where the extremes print most often.
A day can count twice: once for its high, once for its low.
The day after
Does the next day take the press-conference move back? We looked at the days where that move was still standing at the 5:00 pm close: 25 FOMC days.
The next day took all of it back on 11 of 25 FOMCs (44%). A same-size move on a normal day is taken back about as often (47%). Half of it came back on 72%, less often than the 90% for a same-size normal move. So the day after behaves much like the day after any move that size.
ES, YM and RTY
The same tests on the other three index futures. Each cell reads FOMC days / the comparison named in the row. RTY has fewer days: 54 FOMC days and 250 normal Wednesdays.
| Measure | NQ | ES | YM | RTY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Took the day’s high or low, 2:00 to 4:00 pm (vs normal Wednesdays) | 85% / 50% | 92% / 58% | 82% / 51% | 85% / 44% |
| Press conference back through the 2:00 pm price (vs same-size moves) | 69% / 33% | 69% / 43% | 71% / 40% | 73% / 41% |
| Press conference ran further than the 2:00 pm move (vs same-size moves) | 38% / 7% | 35% / 9% | 33% / 12% | 29% / 13% |
| PM high or low in the 1:30 to 3:00 pm quarter (vs normal Wednesdays) | 70% / 32% | 82% / 36% | 77% / 36% | 74% / 37% |
| Move left after 2:50 pm, against a normal Wednesday’s | 1.8x | 2.1x | 1.8x | 2.0x |
| Morning range, against the four Wednesdays before | 31% less | 31% less | 20% less | 6% less |
How we tested it
The first pass said the two-stage rule was nothing special. Here is how that changed, because it is the most useful part of the whole check.
Against every normal Wednesday, it looked ordinary
We first took the “initial price run” to be the first 15 minutes after 2:00 pm. After that run, price came back through the 2:00 pm price on 74% of FOMC days, and on 80% of normal Wednesdays. It ran further than the run on 39% of FOMC days, and on 48% of normal Wednesdays. On that reading, FOMC reverses no more than any Wednesday.
Against same-size moves, it didn’t
But a normal Wednesday’s 2:00 to 2:15 pm move is a wiggle, about a tenth of a typical day’s range. On FOMC days it is about a third. Small moves come back through their start all the time, so the comparison was unfair. Matched by size, each FOMC day against normal Wednesdays whose 2:00 pm move was the same share of the day’s range, normal days came back through the 2:00 pm price 57% of the time and ran further 17% of the time, against 74% and 39% on FOMC days. (12 FOMC days moved further than any normal Wednesday did, so they have no match.)
Measured his way, it is clear
ICT’s two stages are not 15 minutes, though: they are the statement and the press conference. Measured that way, on the 52 days with a press conference, you get the result at the top: back through the 2:00 pm price on 69% against 33% for same-size normal moves, and further than the 2:00 pm move on 38% against 7%. Against every normal Wednesday, the same FOMC numbers would still look ordinary (70% and 33%). The size match is what shows the difference.
One caution on that match. 17 of the 52 FOMC days had a 2:00 pm move of half a day’s range or more, and only one normal Wednesday moved that much, so for those 17 the comparison rests on a single day. Leave them out and the gap is still there: back through the 2:00 pm price on 80% against 49%, and further on 51% against 11%.
And the 9 early FOMC days with no press conference? Price came back through the 2:00 pm price after 2:30 pm on 8 of them, so a second stage showed up without anyone speaking. Nine days are too few to say more.
Every definition was written down before its numbers were run. When a step changed the question, it went in as a new, labelled check; the earlier result stays on record.
What this doesn’t show
- It describes what price did on past FOMC days. It is not a strategy: no entries, no stops, no costs.
- 61 days is a small sample, and 25 for the day after is smaller still. Read the rates as rough.
- The data ends in mid 2024. The held-back years will show whether it lasts.
Keep reading: The Red Folder Clock places every high-impact news event, FOMC included, on the market’s clock before it prints. ICT Liquidity covers the highs and lows price goes to take.
Common questions
What does ICT say about FOMC?
Three things, in his posts on X: FOMC is typically a 2 stage delivery (the 2:00 pm statement, then the 2:30 pm press conference), it is a liquidity event, and it is not traded until 2:45 to 2:50 pm. On 61 FOMC days of NQ futures, the first two describe price well, and the third is sound advice that still leaves a move.
What time is the FOMC statement and press conference?
The statement comes out at 2:00 pm New York time (ET) on the last day of each scheduled meeting, and the press conference starts at 2:30 pm. Every meeting since 2019 has had one.
Does price reverse at the FOMC press conference?
Often. On NQ, the press conference took price back through the 2:00 pm price on 69% of FOMC days, against 33% after a same-size 2:00 pm move on a normal Wednesday. It ran further than the 2:00 pm move on 38%, against 7%.
When does ICT say to trade FOMC?
Not until 15 to 20 minutes after the statement, at 2:45 to 2:50 pm: “You have to let it do its damage. Then look for setups.” By 2:50 pm about three quarters of the 2:00 to 4:00 pm range is in, but the move left after 2:50 pm is still 1.8x a normal Wednesday’s.
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